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Human Overpopulation
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            Human Overpopulation

Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus, an English minister, first recognized that human population growth over time would exceed food production.  In 1798 he first published, An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society.  He forecasted that “war, pestilence and famine” would limit human numbers.

In nature, species numbers are limited by access to energy (food or sunlight), water, habitat, physical conditions (temperature, rainfall, etc.) and disease, parasites and predators.   Unlike other species on our planet, humans can control some of these variables.  Part of our control results from the use of the concentrated energy stored in fossil fuels.  Consequently, we have grown far beyond those limits.

The carrying capacity, the number of individuals of a species that a habitat can support indefinitely, for the Earth for humans may be as low as 2 billion or as high as 10 billion. The authorities disagree. Currently our human population approaches 7 billion.

Twenty cities each contain more than 10 million people.  About half the people on Earth live in cities.  Interestingly, women in cities have fewer children.  They average 2.2 children, in contrast to rural women with an average of 3 children.

The replacement rate, the number of newborns required to replace their parents given that some children will die of accidents and disease, varies from 2.1 in prosperous developed countries to almost 3.5.  The highest rates characterize eight African countries where, sadly AIDS is common, and Afghanistan.

In many developed countries in 2010 fertility has dropped below the replacement rate.  The typical Iranian woman has 1.7 children.  Austrian, Russian, Swiss, Spanish and Greek women give birth to an average of 1.4 children. The average Italian woman has 1.3 children.  The average East German, Czech, Polish, Ukrainian and Korean woman has 1.2 children.  In Singapore, it's only 1.1.

Some countries and cultures retain high birth rates.  In India fertility averages 2.8 children per woman.  Once a nomadic people now settled in villages, Bedouin women in the Negev Desert have on average 7.6 children.  , The ultraorthodox Haredi Jewish women in Jerusalem in 2000 each gave birth to 9 children.

Recent declines in fertility are attributed to educating and empowering women giving them choices.

In developing countries women with education have on average two less children than those without education. In the US women high school dropouts have an average of 3.2 children. High school graduates have 2.7 children. College graduates have 1.6-2 children.

Will humanity have the compassion and resources to limit and care for their family, neighbors and community? Will empowered women prevail?  The future will reveal if Malthus made an accurate prediction. 

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