Tapestry Press
The Coming Population Crash
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Tapestry Press
The Coming Population Crash
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The Coming Population Crash and the Planet’s Surprising Future by Fred Pearce. Published in 2010 by Beacon Press. British journalist Fred Pearce has tackled human population trends in his latest book. First he presents an overview of early prominent figures’ views and calculations of future numbers, trends and concerns. He begins with Malthus, the English minister, who foresaw that population would inevitably exceed the capacity of food production to support it. As is typical of most of us, Malthus accepted the various biases of his time. Fred notes that Malthus’s prediction of future maximum numbers has been surpassed. He fails to recognize the impact of fossil fuels (for nitrogen fixation for fertilizer production) on our capacity to grow more food. As in his earlier book, Confessions of an Ecosinner, Fred traveled to various countries to investigate the human issues there. He was surprised to find low rates of reproduction in both eastern and western Europe. The replacement rate of reproduction equals 2.2 children per woman. Some countries have rates as low as 1.2 children per woman. With rates below 2.2, after a time lag, the population will begin to decrease. In eastern Europe he visited cities with abandoned factories and neighborhoods, areas that are becoming derelict. He expresses concern for the possible loss of cultures. In Russia the life span of men has decreased to 59 years. Tragically, many men there die of alcoholism. He reports that gender selection of babies has become a pattern in Asian countries. After an ultrasound that reveals the gender of the fetus, many girl babies are aborted. In China this allows couples to have a more desirable boy. These single children, "little emperors", grow up in a cohort with few girls. Some later marry Viet Namese women or ones of other nationalities. Certain cultures such as the ultraorthodox Jewish sect, the Haredi, and the Bedouin, originally nomadic people, now settled in villages also in Israel, continue to have high fertility. The average Haredi family has 9 children. Bedouin women average 7.6 children. He discusses the aging of the human population. Whereas in the past youth dominated the economics of many cultures, in future, fewer workers will support each retiree. Compared to 50 years ago, retirees are now healthier. Beyond age 65 most continue to participate in community events. Some continue to work. Some volunteer in service roles. Their contributions make them an asset to society. The "surprising future" in the title refers to the decreasing growth rate of our population. We reached 6 billion in 1999 and we are projected to reach 7 billion in 2013. One demographer predicts a peak in human numbers at less than 8 billion in 2040. Thereafter our numbers will slowly decrease to as low as 5 billion in 2100. Reduced numbers reduce our burden on the Earth. Written December 10, 2010
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